While the Seahawks and Patriots battle it out in sunny Arizona, we will likely be tackled by our first significant, accumulating snow of 2015 here in the Tri-State. We are still about 3 days out from both events, but the models are agreeing that snow is a good bet for the Tri-State, especially areas north of the Ohio River. Here is what I have been studying today:
This is the GFS model for Sunday morning. Notice how the rain/snow (freeze line) is just north of the Tri-State on Sunday morning. By Sunday afternoon, colder air begins to drive south:
By the time your guests start arriving for your Super Bowl party, we'll likely see rain mixing with and then changing over to snow, first across southern Indiana and Illinois and then Kentucky by evening:
By Sunday evening, the GFS has most of the Tri-State in snow. While it is impossible to nail down accumulations at this point in the game, the data you're looking at would support at least a couple of inches, and possibly more.
Of course, we look at several models to produce a forecast, so check out the European:
The European is a little more aggressive with the arrival of the cold air, and is also wetter...meaning more accumulation than is shown on the GFS.
By 7:00, the European paints the heaviest snow east of the Wabash River, with the changeover line right along the Ohio River.
By 11:00, the European has snow for all the Tri-State, and keeps the heavier moisture over us for a longer period...this may signal heavier snowfall than the GFS is generating.
We'll continue to watch both models over the next couple of days and will update timing and snow totals as we get closer to the event. For now, you might want to pick up a little rock salt and some milk to go with your chip & dip and hot wings....the best halftime show might be the snow outside your window !