Our first bout of severe weather is on the way Thursday. Warm and moist air will be in place as a cold front slices in from the west during the afternoon and evening. The SPC has a slight risk in place over the Tri-State and much of the Midwest for Thursday:
The greatest threat appears to be damaging winds, give the profile of the atmosphere and upper-level winds. Some hail is possible, and the tornado threat appears to be very low.
Flooding will become a concern on Friday as the front passes and rain lingers over the area. Here is the timeline as of Wednesday afternoon. Showers and storms will blow up early Thursday morning over southern Illinois. These will drift across southwestern Indiana and western Kentucky during the morning commute.
The greatest threat for severe storms arrives on Thursday afternoon and evening as several waves moves into the Tri-State.
By Thursday night, the severe threat subsides but heavy rainfall ramps up and continues through Friday:
The models are all forecasting a couple of inches of rain across the Ohio River valley.
While the Ohio River is below flood stage, it will likely rise with all of this rain. Smaller creeks and tributaries will push out of their banks from the Friday soaker. The silver lining to the clouds: A dry but cooler Easter weekend.