It's as predictable as Santa's flight down from the North Pole: Everybody wants to know if we'll have a White Christmas this time of year. While we've only received measurable snowfall on December 25th 7 times in the last 50 years, we might see some snow on Christmas night or the day after this year. The last time we had snowfall on Christmas day was in 2002 when 2" fell.
I've been watching the models as a powerful Pacific storm is depicted late this weekend:
The storm will crash into the Pacific Northwest on Saturday night and Sunday and then begin moving to the east along the jetstream. Below is the position on Monday. We'll likely see some rain as this system draws warm, Gulf moisture our way.
By Tuesday morning, rain continues across the Tri-State. The wavy red line shows freezing temperatures at the surface, and it is well to the north. In fact, temperatures on Tuesday will flirt with 50-degrees, aided by a broad south wind across the Ohio Valley.
After dry and cooler weather on Christmas Eve and most of Christmas Day, a secondary piece of energy spins around the low and sends some rain into the Tri-State Christmas night. Notice, too, that the freeze line begins to dive south toward the Ohio River.
By early Friday morning (December 26th) the rain will change to snow as frigid air plunges to the south.
By Friday night, the snow pulls to the east of the Tri-State. It's important to note that this is a long-range model prediction, and many things can and will change in the timing, precip type and amounts. But it's worth watching, as it at least gives us a fighting chance of seeing some snow on Christmas !