After grinding through the 7th coldest February on record, all of us are ready for a change--or at least a variety in weather. We'll get a little something for everyone this week, but the abnormally cold temps will get the upper hand once again.
Monday will bring clouds and highs in the upper 30's...about 15-20 degrees below normal for the first week of March. The first event will arrive on Tuesday. Notice the cold front to the northwest of the Tri-State on Tuesday morning:
High pressure to the east and a tightening pressure gradient will kick up a brisk southwest wind on Tuesday. Winds will gust to 20 mph ahead of the cold front. This moisture-rich air mass will be primed to unload some heavy rainfall over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by Tuesday afternoon:
With such a potent cold front plowing in, you might be concerned about severe weather potential. While no severe weather appears likely, we will hear some thunder on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Here is the SPC's chart showing areas of general (non-severe) thunderstorms on Tuesday evening:
Heavy rainfall may create flooding problems, especially in areas south of the Ohio River. The GFS model depicts ample rainfall over the Tennessee valley:
Another surge of Arctic air drops in before the rain completely departs. Notice the position of the red freeze line by Wednesday night at 6pm:
Depending on the amount of moisture remaining, and the speed of the cooling to below freezing, significant snowfall will be possible over Kentucky and Tennessee by Wednesday evening:
After Wednesday, a quiet and cold pattern returns with lows plunging back into the teens on Thursday and Friday mornings, while highs will only reach the mid 20's on Thursday and the mid 30's on Friday. Alas, spring is still a little less than 3 weeks away. Hang in there !